Dear Friends,
We are again in an interesting period for business, with some dim light at the end of the tunnel regarding the Iran/US conflict, compounded by the expected and unwelcome climatic extremes.
For sure, costs have increased above those planned for, and inflation, as well as interest rates, will undoubtedly increase through 2026. We expect a Bank of England base interest rate increase of 0.5-0.75% by Christmas, and CPI increasing to 5-6% by the end of the year. Food inflation, after taking a dip in April, will begin to increase in May and continue through the rest of the year. Where it will peak is not so clear, but 5%+ would be no surprise.
El Niño is something we are all becoming more familiar with. El Niño refers to a sustained period of warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It forms part of a natural cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which alternates between warm (El Niño) and cool (La Niña) phases.
These events do not follow a fixed timetable. They can vary in strength and duration, and the gap between episodes is irregular. Each El Niño is unique, but stronger events tend to have more widespread and pronounced global effects.
El Niño takes place thousands of kilometres away from north-west Europe, so its influence on UK weather is indirect. While there are sometimes links between El Niño events and European weather patterns, these are far from guaranteed.
The UK’s weather is shaped by many competing factors that affect the Atlantic jet stream and other large-scale atmospheric patterns. As a result, it is too early to draw firm conclusions about what this developing El Niño might mean for future UK seasons. Source: UK Met Office.
Antonelli has amended its sales forecast for July and August to a 20% increase on 2025. We are very busy making cones on a double shift as normal, but with more ovens per day running. We have been left short of one or two ice cream ingredient lines by our manufacturers; however, these are a very small number and we have substitute products available.
With the majority of the season still in front of you, I suggest you maintain stock at around three weeks ahead of your usage on ingredients, certainly until the end of July.
You will see some trending ideas in our monthly news throughout the summer (see our recent article here). If we experience more very hot periods, we may see a swing towards drinks rather than ice cream. This can be negated by offering some refreshing sorbets. Always popular are fruit flavours such as lemon, watermelon, pink grapefruit and blood orange. These can be made from scratch or very quickly using the Comprital Speedy Line (just add water and freeze).
Yours faithfully,
Mark Antonelli
Director of Sales & Marketing
Antonelli Bros Ltd.