A message from Mark Antonelli, Joint Managing Director

Easter Update: Costs, Climate & Confidence in the Season Ahead

Easter is finally here after what feels to many like the longest winter ever, yet we have been busier than ever.

As we look ahead to the peak trading season – and understanding you are probably sick of hearing it – what a difference a day makes. One person’s actions, it seems, can change the direction of the world economy. No longer are thinking inflation and interest rates will fall, in fact the food sector is pretty well set to see significant cost increases in the next few months and perhaps for longer. Looking back twelve month the economic experts were forecasting faster reductions of interest rate than can to pass, so what we can all probably expect is “an increase in uncertainty”. Are we bracing for increases due to ongoing conflict in the Middle East? At the time of writing to when you read this, the situation could well have changed. Whether this proves to be short-lived or something more prolonged, like Covid, remains to be seen. Our thoughts and prayers are the innocents that are in the line of fire.

When setting Antonelli cone prices for 2026, we did not anticipate fuel price increases of around 20%, which equates to roughly a 3% rise on the selling price of goods. However, we did expect – and account for – a degree of cost instability. Sugar and biscuit flour remain particularly susceptible to climatic extremes, hence why we expect volatility to continue. With global trade as it is, means that pricing across international markets inevitably impacts costs here in the UK.

The question many of you are asking is whether to stock up ahead of potential price increases. The reality is, this depends on your cash flow and appetite for risk. Will prices increase? Will the conflict continue? Each business will make its own judgement. What I can say with certainty is that Antonelli is well stocked and we are not currently increasing prices. That said, we have received notice of price increases from several packaging suppliers, and shipping costs have already risen significantly.

Will we have to raise prices in the future? It is possible – perhaps even likely – but not guaranteed. The first products to be affected will be those outside of our control, such as packaging and ingredients. With cones, we are in a stronger position, holding good stocks of both ingredients and packaging, allowing us to weather short-term increases. However, those importing cones across Europe will feel these pressures more acutely, as transport represents a higher proportion of overall cost.

I hope to have given you some greater insight, unfortunately that’s as far as I can go as you will appreciate.

Now… let’s turn to something slightly more predictable: the weather 

The 15-year trend shows a decline in sunshine duration over winter and autumn, while spring and summer have seen increases – albeit with significant variation year on year.

There is no shortage of evidence that sunshine encourages people to spend more time outdoors, feel better, and, of course, buy more ice cream. Perhaps our job is simply to remind them that even on less brighter days, ice cream still helps you feel happier.

Graphs showing UK annual sunshine hours. Source: Met Office

The first half of 2025 brought the phase to peoples lips “finally we are returning to normal years” when describing the demand for ice cream.

By the end of June, consumer confidence and therefore spending, seriously reduced ice cream sales throughout many areas of the UK, but not quite so much where retail price increases were kept lower.

Sunshine has been something of a stranger to us all since dampening sales through the Autumn and Winter.  In February, the expectation was that we were going to be on the up, that 2026 would be a better year. That now feels less certain, and perhaps doubtful with forecasts pointing towards further interest rate increases ahead. A silver lining may be that the UK tourist numbers will be higher. An article published in December 2025 by Party House UK states:

• 52% vs 46%: For the first time in recent years, more Brits plan to take a UK staycation (52%) than travel abroad (46%) in 2025, according to holiday park operator data
• 63% Total Engagement: Broader surveys indicate that nearly two-thirds (63%) of all Brits will take at least one UK break in 2025, with 34% choosing it as their main summer holiday

I cannot give opinion on the quality of this data, but I am taking some comfort in that, maybe 2026 will see bigger numbers of ice cream lovers out and about seeking out their favourite treats this year. Although it probably will be after the Easter Weekend more the pity.

So, for now, let’s focus on what we can control – keeping our customers happy by delivering trusted, locally supplied products at the lowest prices we can, and always with a smile. When the sun shines, as it will, life will seem that bit better.

Mark Antonelli