Human damage to the planet’s environment, conflicts & climate change impacting agricultural yields, we know the causes but how much can we do about it and how will we feed the growing world population? What can we do to reduce the use of non-renewable energy? It’s not just people who travel more, so does food! Consume more of what we produce and produce more of what we consume? These are thoughts on the mind of the many, not just the writer.
The UK has become more dependent on importing from around the world. GDP is by how much: -
UK’s Gross domestic product (GDP) since the 1949
GD is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders.
Here is the ONS data: -
Source: Gross Domestic Product: Year on Year growth: CVM SA % - Office for National Statistics
You can see the change over time with 10 year averages circa: +4% 1950/60, 2.7% in 70’s, 2.5% in 80’s, 2.4% in 90’s, 1.9% on 00’s, 1.25% in 2010’s, 0.8% in 2020’s (COVID blip 2020/1).
April 2025
Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) report examines what might happen to several economic indicators in the years ahead. Like all forecasts, these are uncertain, and they become more uncertain the further into the future they stretch. This shows that gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 1.0% in the 2025 fiscal year and will then speed up to 1.9% in 2026.
However, in 2027 growth will slow to 1.8%, according to the OBR forecast, and will slow again in 2028 to 1.7%. By 2029 growth will once more increase, to 1.8%.
A slowdown in growth does not mean that the economy is no longer growing, simply that it is growing more slowly than it had been. The economy is forecast by the OBR to grow in each one of the years in the forecast. – The writer feels that this is optimistic and a little sceptical of what is published by such bodies.
GDP is contributed to by many commercial sectors. What is the impact of food?
UK food security is the balance between home produced and reliance on imports. The table below shows we are only producing 75% of the total consumed food in the UK. But let us remember that we export some of what we produce, so we import much more than 25% of what we consume.
Production has become more globally centralised over time, increasing real costs due to: -
- Shipping further.
- Greater supply chain vulnerability.
- Potential for political tariffs.
Trumps “Declaration of Economic Independence.” is the clearest and most recent move of greater home market protection. Could this mark a change of the tide, back to “Regionalised production”? Making more where it is needed.
The part of one small food company making ice cream cones “Antonelli”
Long, long ago (1963 in fact) when the last shift at Monkwearmouth Colliery ended coal mining in the Durham coalfield after at least 700 years, Buckingham Palace opened its doors to the public for the first time and Ford unveiled its new Mondeo; Mark and David Antonelli joined the family business to steer its path through the next generation. There were two key philosophies in play when making their long-term plan.
Manufacturing companies if not growing, are not going to thrive.
In the 90’s and 00’s there was low investment in UK manufacturing. “Move production East” they said. “Buy products from Europe and packaging from China” they said. “Don’t invest in machinery and jobs” they said. “But is that sustainable?” Antonelli asked.
The Antonelli brothers understood that: -
- The English Channel has always been expensive to cross.
- The UK grows wheat, Antonelli have skilled people and a cone bakery to make cones for the UK ice cream consumers.
- Antonelli has always been the innovative market leader for cones and the best option for the business was to grow, not to outsource.
- Capital and skills investment is not something to be discarded, just because there is a short term (30 years is short when a business has been going 100+ years) trend to buy offshore.
- To minimise the costs of delivery, admin, sales & marketing, they should introduce ancillary product of value to the ice cream makers and vendors.
The company continues to source as much of its materials from within the UK as is practical whilst delivering the wants of its customers across the UK and Ireland. The continuing investment in cone ovens, trebling capacity and innovating over the past 30 years is set to go on further with foundations laid for more growth to on the extensive Irlam site. They are proud of their Italian heritage but more importantly the small part the company plays in delivering a bit of success for the UK community.
“Self-reliance and long-term community prosperity is at the heart of our business plan as it always has been” says Mark Antonelli – Co-Managing Director. “Becoming carbon neutral, waste controls, sustainable packaging and many more areas of importance may well be hurdles for our business going forward, but they are there for good reasons and dealing with them will make us stronger for the future”
Writer note: This article is a divergence from what we more normally write about, but recent changes in the world brought it to my mind to write something. I hope you found it of some interest.
Mark Antonelli, Co-Managing Director
